HMH Covid RS Application
This application assigns a risk score to patients with Covid-19 based upon clinical data. It provides an estimate of likelihood of survival for patients hospitalized with Covid-19.
It is derived from a large study of 3,123 patients who were admitted to one of the Hackensack Meridian Health Network hospitals from March 1, 2020 to April 22, 2020 with a proven SARS-CoV-2 infection. Patients were excluded if they were on a trial or pregnant, and were included only once they had survived the first day of hospitalization.
The formulaic result (HMH RS) was highly correlated with likelihood of survival to 40 days. The HMH RS was found to better correlate with the survival measure, during that period, than did numerous other clinical or treatment factors. The HMH RS formula was generated using a "training" dataset of 1,561 patients, and it was then validated in a separate dataset of 1,562 patients. The Survival estimate is based upon correlative analysis between the Risk Score and Survival, for the total cohort of 3,123 patients.
The calculator below caps certain values based upon the ranges found in our patient cohort: age is limited to 104 years or younger; RS is limited to 7 or lower. RS values above 7 were rare in our cohort; therefore, we opt not to provide a survival estimate for patients with RS values above 7.
Results may not be generalizable to other health care systems; to other parts of the United States or world; for pregnant patients or those on clinical trials; for those who have been vaccinated; or for patients receiving therapies that were not available during this time frame.
The HMH RS should not be interpreted to imply efficacy of nor advocate for any particular therapy or triage approach. It has not yet been validated for clinical decision-making. Further validation and comparisons are welcome.
Tachypnea at presentation
Hypoxia at presentation
Hx Coronary disease
Hx Chronic renal insuff
HMH-RS Mortality Risk Score:
Percent Likelihood of Survival to Day 40:
This application works best with Google Chrome, Microsoft Edge or Firefox browsers.
Please see the reference for details on the large study that produced this model.
To help with funding of these and other efforts, please consider a donation to NJStandsUpToCovid.org.
DefinitionsAge in years
Tachypnea at presentation: respiratory rate per minute of 25 or greater
Hypoxia at presentation: oxygen saturation less than 94 %
Hx Hypertension: as a pre-hospital comorbidity
Hx Coronary disease: as a pre-hospital comorbidity
Hx Chronic renal insufficiency: as a pre-hospital comorbidity
HMH-RS Mortality Risk Score is the calculated Risk Score based upon multivariate analysis and fit to significant variables as described in reference below
Survival given as a % likelihood of survival to day 40.
Development and validation of a prognostic 40-day mortality risk model among hospitalized patients with COVID-19. Donald A. Berry, Ph.D., Andrew Ip, M.D. M.S., Brett E Lewis, M.D., Ph.D., Scott M. Berry, Ph.D., Nicholas S. Berry, Ph.D., Mary MrKulic, Virginia Gadalla, Burcu Sat, Kristen Wright, Michelle Serna, Rashmi Unawane, Katerina Trpeski, Michael Koropsak, Puneet Kaur, Zachary Sica, Andrew McConnell, Urszula Bednarz B.S. CCRP, Michael Marafelias, B.S, Andre H. Goy, M.D., Andrew L Pecora, M.D., Ihor S Sawczuk, M.D., and Stuart L Goldberg, M.D. Accepted for publication (PLOS ONE, 2021).
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